Tips for Ascot: Best value bets on Saturday December 23

So we can get down to business, the business of this post being to review current trainer form for the big guns heading into Cheltenham Festival 2021. A Plus Tard has been exposed a couple of times in Festival G1 company now and is short enough for all that he’s hugely talented. Galvin may still be improving but 5/1 readily acknowledges that.

• There’s plenty of content about how to use the geegeez toolkit elsewhere – try this link for a run down, so in this post I want to consider the other term, differentiators.
• They are 0 from 22, though then nine-year-old Whisper nearly benefited from Might Bite’s errant course up the hill last year in the RSA Chase.
• Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close.
• Multiple Grand National winners have scored at Bangor, while Gold Cup winning trio Norton’s Coin, Mr Mulligan and Denman all tasted success there before their finest hour.
• The tips offered by our platform have proven to be instrumental in helping customers make well-informed decisions when placing bets, leading to more wins.
• But, on balance, I’ll stick with what I have and cheer the champ to repeat and remain unbeaten.
• With six days until tapes rise on the Supreme, we can hope that all will hereafter be more serene, barring the perennial raft of late scratches and shock race switcheroos.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service

Their promotional offers for horse racing are more than decent, frequent throughout the year, and all the more interesting around big race meets. Betfair and Paddy Power are jointly out in front here, with the best in-play features for race betting. The cash-out function at Betfair is one of the easiest to use of its kind, ideal for making quick decisions during the heat of the action. Similarly, Paddy Power has strong in-play betting for racing punters. There are so many places online that we can turn to when we want to place a bet, whether we choose to head to Ladbrokes horse racing or to any of the other sites that offer this type of wagering. Over the next few centuries, interest in horse racing continued to grow.

Horse racing tips: Newton Abbot and Nottingham – Wednesday October 30

Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he’s generally safe across them. The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers. I really don’t like this race from a betting perspective. You have to make excuses for the horses at the top of the market where their price doesn’t allow for such latitude.

How to read the racecard

Queen Anne helped to establish the Royal Ascot, one of the biggest races still in the British racing calendar. By the end of the 1830s, another of Britain’s great races – the Grand National – had been established at Aintree. This is one of the oldest sports in the UK by far, and interest in it has stayed steady throughout the years. This is a deep race and there’s plenty with chances including the likes of Corbett Cross and Three Card Brag. It is hard to put anyone off backing either of those too but with such a competitive renewal of this race I don’t want to get stuck into something at a shortish price.

Value, testing ground & the Festival…

Both the jump and Flat trainers’ championships run at the same time as the jockeys’ championships. However, there is a major difference in how the winner is determined as the trainers’ championship is decided by total prize-money rather than winners. In our new introduction to racing our experts have collated the most essential information to help you understand and enjoy this brilliant sport, including how to pick a winner, four must-know facts and how to watch the action. He has gone close a few times in these big handicaps and if his top rider can smuggle him through then he has every chance. Qirat is a worthy favourite having won a hot contest at Goodwood with a bit up his sleeve.

• This particular race was won by the unexposed, and still unbeaten – now in three races – Hickory, who was a class above his rivals.
• Price boosts, enhanced odds and other promotions run throughout the year, and particularly around major events like Cheltenham, Royal Ascot and the Grand National.
• The final component in my facilitation/differentiation quintet is field size.
• This is a really tricky race with if’s and but’s about most of them.
• It may look surprising that the winner is now the outsider of that trio, but he is the one least likely to stay this six-furlong longer trip, and I’m in agreement with the betting market, for all I like the horse.

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He’s been aggressively ascendant, rising from a rating of 139 at season start to his current 156; but that still leaves him with a stone and more to find when Honeysuckle’s mares’ allowance is incorporated. The traditional pipe opener restored to its 1.30 tapes up slot and, after much hokey cokeying amongst the mega stable entries we have our list of runners and riders fixed. It’s a yes for Dysart Dynamo, Constitution Hill and Jonbon but a ‘see you tomorrow’ for Sir Gerhard. If we focus only on LTO winners, it is interesting that each LTO Graded category made a small individual profit to BSP, as did those who won a Listed contest. There is a sliding scale of strike rates as you would expect.

Coral Cup result

Omniscient failed to justify 5-4 favouritism but made no mistake over a mile and a quarter at Yarmouth eight days ago, still looking rough hewn in thumping At Liberty by five and a half lengths. REBEL’S ROMANCE, who is unbeaten in three starts in Europe, rates much the best option. Another personal best came via a length-and-and-a-half margin from Live In The Dream in the Listed Scurry Stakes over the minimum trip at Sandown Park on the second Saturday in June. And Mitbaahy was unfortunate not to rack up the hat-trick over the same course and distance on the Coral-Eclipse undercard last time out.

Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for the final Race 👇🏼

Tom Queally’s mount still has the potential for better and is worth another go at this marathon trip. Reshoun returned to winning form at Newbury 13 days ago and is feared, along with stablemate Hydroplane and last year’s runner-up Withhold. Fourteen jump fixtures for us in the schedule for the week with a wide geographic spread. We start the week in Scotland with an extended seven race card at Ayr. Following quite a long spell of rain leading up to the meeting the going has now eased to Good to Soft.

talkSPORT betting tips – Best bets and expert advice for Saturday at Wetherby

Supported by a valuable card at Ascot and a return to Ayr. That quality continues on Sunday with a good card at Carlisle containing two Listed races and we also have Huntingdon. ‘The flat season draws towards its conclusion and the number of jumps fixtures increases for the week ahead. After a largely wet October we have a dry and mild spell forecast for most areas and the changing going conditions could have an important part to play. Full Shift figures on a lenient handicap mark if the first time “cheek-pieces+tongue-tie” have a positive effect. I put him in provisionally at 9/4 which is at the top end of the prices on offer.

• He was extremely impressive on his debut at Fontwell last month, travelling strongly and powering clear on the run-in without breaking sweat.
• The table above shows the performance in handicaps of four to seven runners over the last five years.
• William Buick winners have been with Bohemian Melody (2011) and Jamaican Bolt (2014).
• Chacun was imperious at Christmas, value for plenty more than the official six and a half lengths.
• Invictus Gold beat nothing at Newmarket but could not have done it any easier.
• This has presumably been the target for Paul Hennessy’s charge; he also owns and bred her.
• Silvestre De Sousa winners have been with Thunderball (2012) and Aberama Gold (2020).
• Noisy Jazz is going the right way and could give the selection a race if getting cover early.

Cheltenham Festival Novice Grade 1’s (excl. Bumper & Triumph Hurdle)

The undoubted highlight of day one is the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle. Since just under two hours before last year’s Champion Hurdle, Constitution Hill has been close to, or outright, favourite for the 2023 renewal. The reason for that was his destruction of a solid-looking Supreme Novices’ Hurdle field in the 2022 curtain raiser, where he easily despatched Jonbon et al in a very fast time. True, both Dysart Dynamo (joint favourite with CH that day) and Mighty Potter, unbeaten in four since, both failed to complete; but that is, after all, a fairly important part of the challenge. Corach Rambler won the race last year and will again be played late; he was much the best that day and is only six pounds higher now. A fine fourth of 15 in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy as was) in November was his most recent run, though that was 108 days ago.

Found A Fifty has led in each of his four chase spins and will face pace contention here; that might compromise his chance. In any case, he looks a little way behind peak showings from the other pair mentioned so far. As I write there are four horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, headed – just – by Gaelic Warrior. Trained by Mullins for Ricci, he was presumed for the Turners after his romp in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices’ Chase over two and a half miles at Christmas. But then came Leopardstown and the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) where, in the Grade 1 novice chase there, he just ran a shocker.

LH – It’s a horse race (“thankfully”), and stuff can go wrong; but it will very much have to for CH to get beaten in the CH. I Like To Move It the “wise guy” horse but his forward-going style may not be suited to the tactical shape of the race. Any of Jason The Militant, Not So Sleepy, or the big pair of Constitution Hill and State Man could take them along.

Back in fourth at Naas was Nara, who really has looked a Boodles project on her two starts on Irish shores so far. The reapplication of the hood looks a smart move, as she was a bit keen pre-race and I don’t expect to see her in the paddock at Cheltenham until the bell for jockeys-up goes, at which point it’ll be straight in and straight out again. There should be more to come once she learns to take her racing better, for all you’d struggle to say she’s been thrown in here.

more stars of sport

And, of course, that’s absolutely fine because – remember – the number one takeaway from these million words is, Choose Your Battles. Play where you know most, and where you’re as comfortable as possible with what you don’t know. Like which trainers, and which of their horses, might leap forward on handicap bow. Even at relatively short odds of 7/2, there may be a losing run of 27 or 28 bets in a 1000 race sample; so we have to be set up, emotionally and financially, to deal with that. Betting is fun, perhaps more so on horses than most other sports because of the speed with which the result is known; that rapid production of endorphins induced by the short duration of a race compared with, say, a football match. This doesn’t look to be the deepest Novice hurdle so UNIVERSAL DAVE may well be able to shoulder a penalty and land a second career success.

Just ask those that swear by each of the above, and the countless many other race betting systems out there. At the end of the day, this is a results business, and if a system isn’t driving results, punters won’t stick with it for long. While some will sneer at systems and programmatic strategies, the proof of the pudding is always in the eating. When it comes to racing, the sheer choice on the betting front is enormous, and, frankly, a little difficult to comprehend for a beginner.

Buick has strong claims of landing a double with REBEL’S ROMANCE, the favourite for the Group 3L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate Glorious Stakes (4.10). The Irish are an integral part of the congregation worshiping at jump racing’s cathedral, and there’s no Cheltenham thrill like it when that country unites behind an “Irish banker”. Some of Cheltenham’s greatest scenes have been provided by the likes of Istabraq, Like A Butterfly and Danoli, and our friends from across the water are throwing the kitchen sink behind Samcro. Lazuli (1.50) is a sprinter going places and should be able to land the Coral Charge after his brilliant victory in the Scurry Stakes last time.

Since 2009, the total wagered on horses has been falling, as online and mobile bookies have led the charge with other sports. This coincides with the rise of mobile betting, and underlying trends in sports betting that have seen football and tennis gain more ground. When it comes to promotions for big race events, it’s always worth shopping around. These vary between different providers and often change from year to year, so it’s usually a good idea to do some homework on the available promotions and bonus terms ahead of the bigger racing events.

Racing to the second last he switched to the outside, found some better ground and a bit of daylight, and in a few strides had gathered in all but Min. The bookmakers early mark up on the races of interest is too far tilted in their favour. I suppose the thinking is that Saturday punters will have a bet whatever.

Hence any female running this year at Cheltenham who won last time out might be a horse to consider as a betting opportunity. Epatante has been thumped twice in Grade 1’s by Constitution Hill this season; and then beat a field of inferior mares in appropriate fashion. She’s only run once at this longer distance, when winning the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle easily last season. Her main market rival that day fell at the last as Epatante was looming upsides, but she looked to have had him covered at that point. She is holding her form fairly well and is unexposed at the trip.

The nature of most HC1 plays is that we’re grappling in the dark, with every chance that the horse is just not very able and runs a clunker. Below are a few more Instant Expert grids, and your challenge is to decide which horses offered playable value, and which races looked too competitive and should have been passed. Even if we’re right about the true odds being 7/2, we’re still looking at 77.7% losers. But, over a thousand £1 bets, those 22.3% winners (223) will return £1,115 – or a profit of 11.5%.

Partnered again by Patrick Mullins, he’s expected to perform well. Mullins also saddles Cantico, ridden by stable jockey Paul Townend, who cruised to victory at Navan last month. But there’s a ton of back class in the field this time headed by Gold Cup winner Minella Bolts Up Daily Indo, and Savills and National Hunt Chase winner Galvin. Add in this year’s Troytown and former Thyestes Chase winner Coko Beach and a raft of credible place contenders at least and it makes for what is very likely the deepest field in Glenfarclas history.

The UK runners did close the gap in 2022, after a dreadful 2021. Only time will tell, but you have to expect the Irish to come out on top overall once more. For many, the Cheltenham Festival is the highlight of not just the National Hunt season, but the whole racing year, writes Dave Renham. In front of a packed and enthralled gathering at South Kensington Holiday Inn, London Racing Club’s annual ‘best of breed’ Cheltenham Preview Evening unfurled.

SPECIAL TIARA Bold front runner who capitalised on Douvan’s injury to win this race a year ago. Well beaten by Altior at Sandown later and he looks to have had his day in the sun. ALTIOR Grand chaser who seeks his third consecutive win at the festival.

Brian Ellison was very confident that he was coming back to form when asked in a recent interview about his 9-year-old for Sky Sports Racing. From the surface underneath, to the topography of the track, to the tightness of the bends, every racecourse in Britain and Ireland is unique. Some will suit prominently ridden horses, others those ridden more patiently.

He will again face the second horse from that Grade 1, Notebook, if both stand their ground at the weekend, and the fact that Notebook is circa 5/1 third choice for Dublin’s Festival Chase speaks of the paucity of opposition once more. There is the not inconsiderable frame of Min betwixt and between in the weekend market but, in the same ownership as Chacun Pour Soi, it is unclear what might be gained from that pair locking horns. Mind you, they did last season, CPS prevailing by most of four lengths. The tl;dr (bit late now, I realise) is that five of the last six winners – four of them, like Shishkin, odds-on favourites – won by six lengths or more.

Sprinter Sacre may have pulled harder at the heart-strings, as Nicky Henderson said afterwards, but he could not win the Supreme. Opening meeting of the jumps season at Newcastle plus Stratford on Thursday. As the ground at Newcastle is already on the firm side of Good a fair amount of watering will be planned. We then start November with Uttoxeter and the opening day of the Charlie Hall meeting at Wetherby. Decent card at Wetherby on the Friday to get the two day meeting underway.

Trainer Charlie Longsdon is bullish about his chance and, on the evidence of the book, he’s a place possible at least… Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner, Lossiemouth, made a highly impressive return to action here on Trials Day. While she’s the clear favourite and the most likely winner, stepping up to 2m 4f poses a question mark on her stamina. It’s possible that Luccia could be sent on in a bid to force a stronger pace, she herself having made all in the race when her barn mate Iberico flopped; but that’s not her normal run style. And nor should a 140-rated mare be in the same conversation as a 165+ gelding. I retain the faith in him and think he has an excellent chance at a decent price.

Marie’s Rock had graduated to winning the Mares’ Hurdle and Love Envoi the Mares’ Novices Hurdle. If he can jump like he did at Kempton, then he ought to run really well for Anthony Honeyball, who was unlucky not to win this race with Ms Parfois a few years ago (winner Rathvinden would have been demoted under new whip rules). Like Ms Parfois, Kilbeg King will be ridden by Will Biddick, who has been the best English amateur at Cheltenham over the past decade and more. Salvador Ziggy has achieved as much as the pair above but is a more realistic price, with his second under 12st in the Kerry National a fine effort for a novice. He comes here after an abortive trip to run in the Grand National Hurdle at Far Hills in October, and while the absence might be a worry, he was second in the Pertemps last year off an identical lay-off. I’m struggling to make a case for any of Kings Hill, Supersundae and Gold Dancer.